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2016 Pre-season chat

Talk about the Teams & Drivers

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2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Sakae on Sat Dec 05, 2015 6:00 pm

2016 WCC predictions:

01. Ferrari - by a squeak
02. Mercedes
03. Torro Rosso
04. Williams
05. Red Bull
06. McLaren
07. Renault (with current drivers; with better drivers one up)
08. Force India
09. Sauber
10. Haas
11. Manor
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Lawrence on Sun Dec 06, 2015 3:16 am

Really?....based upon points in the final championship?
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Sakae on Sun Dec 06, 2015 6:51 am

We will have all improved cars next season, and a few new engines, which might be a case with Honda, Renault, and Ferrari. I see therefore no reason to look much back to 2014/2015 from that singular perspective. I am hopeful for Ferrari.
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Lyria on Sun Dec 06, 2015 7:46 am

I like your enthusiasm Sakae ;)

See I'm not sure I agree with Toro Rosso being so far ahead of Sauber and Haas, TR will be using this years engine, the other two teams will have the 2016 engine, that has to put them at an advantage surely.

You've also put McLaren and Honda making a huge step forward, it could happen but personally I'd be surprised if they can be that good. Manor however could move forward as they're going to use the Mercedes engine, so yeah, my team list would perhaps be more like this:

1 Mercedes (sadly)
2 Ferrari
3 Red Bull
4 Williams
5 Sauber
6Toro Rosso
7 Force India
8 McLaren
9 Renault
10 Manor
11 Haas
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Sakae on Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:37 am

Nah, keep hope alive! Mercedes is not hungry enough, others are. Honda might surprise, I have no doubt about that, and Toro Rosso as well. Renault is better than given credit. Last two years are not typical IMO of Who is Who, and pretenders will not survive forever. There is some sort of confusion (spread by a blogger), whether Ilmor is or isn't involved in 2016 RBR project, and to what extend.
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Lawrence on Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:26 pm

1. Mercedes (after all, more than one team can develop a car)
2. Ferrari
3. Williams
4. Red Bull (they might discover that engines are tricky things)
5. Force India (this is a team that is finally starting to show its promise, has got two good drivers also)
6. McLaren
7. Renault
8. Toro Rosso (more because I had to put Force India, McLaren and Renault ahead of them, expect them to still be good next season)
9. Manor (hard to argue with Mercedes engines)
10. Haas (the Ferrari B team)
11. Sauber (don't expect them to be bad, but they will have to fight for every point with Manor and Haas)

1. Expect Ferrari to be closer to Mercedes in 2016
2. Expect there to be a real fight for 3rd place between Williams, Red Bull, Force India and perhaps McLaren and Renault)
3. Expect a real fight at the end of the pack between Manor, Haas and Sauber.
4. Hard to say how will Toro Rosso will do next season with last years engine. There are five "big" teams and Williams and Force India, so they have their work cut out for them.
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Mach on Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:17 am

I think the random variable to considered is not engine but the tyres. Teams and drivers will have a little more freedom of choice in 2016. Some tracks demand all teams choose the same tyres....but newer tracks or newer track surfaces present a random variable. The weather too. What about teams who sacrifice an upcoming race to test a certain tyre compound
for the sole purpose of doing well in the following race....etc on strategy.

2016 should prove to be interesting as the tyres may dominate once again.
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Sakae on Mon Dec 07, 2015 4:08 am

Mach wrote:2016 should prove to be interesting as the tyres may dominate once again.

Contradiction of terms as far as I am concerned! Tire shall be an unwelcome factor for some, mini-me included. Take it this way; one doesn't spend EUR 500MM on development of its own machinery only to find out, that one's destiny is with a stroke of a pen taken out of one's hands, and becomes controlled by randomized process of a third party. Broader choices of tire compounds is probably good, sudden and unexpected death, not so much. A race is a precise, scientific process, not alchemy. Well, almost precise process.
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Sakae on Mon Dec 07, 2015 8:53 am

Image

Little premature headlines, as it is reported that Infiniti terminated its business relationship with RBR effective end of this month.
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Paolo 2 on Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:19 am

1 Mercedes - their advantage is too big for Ferrari to catch up in an environment where only evolutions and not revolutions are allowed. Ferrari might well start to work for 2017 halfway through the 2016 season

2 Ferrari - Vettel will shine, whether Kimi will be able (and/or willing) to do his part for the WCC remains to be seen

3 Red Bull - their chassis is so much better than the others that once they have found some tranquillity they will get back to work and be solid podium finishers

4 McLaren - they know how to get there, they have the right drivers for the job, their 2015 chassis IMHO was second only to red Bull's and I think that they might even win some races. IMHO the challenge for them is to keep Ron at bay, he seems to have lost the plot on many occasion this season

5 Renault - they know where their engine needs development, the rest was pretty good already, their main problem are the drivers: the have to hope that the cousin of the man of property has some pace and especially consistency

6 Williams - IMHO they wasted a cycle, they no longer know how to make the leap from podium finishers to race winners, their technical department is still top notch but their management is quite unprofessional and they have a very weak pair of drivers

7 Force India / Aston Martin Racing - their cars is generally quite good, they are very conservative in terms of strategies and what they try to achieve and that might hurt them, but they have an excellent pair of drivers and with ARM backing they will be able to step up their game

8 Toro Rosso - Giorgio Ascanelli is IMHO one of the all time great engineers in F1, they have very good drivers but I'm not so sure that the partnership with Ferrari will work out as expected

9 Sauber - IMHO they no longer have what it takes to come up with a proper F1 program, their management is openly deemed not particularly righteous and their pay drivers are nothing to write home about

10 Manor - if they can get some half decent driver instead of Will Stevens they might have a chance, even though I fear that Booth and the others leaving will hurt them

11 Haas - the first year is going to be tough
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Sakae on Mon Dec 07, 2015 11:33 am

To defend my choices, I should, adopting FiA best practices, clarify:

I think:

1. Ferrari is hungry, and it has been reported on several occasions we will have a totally new car just an engine. Whether it will be revolutionary or evolutionary remains to be seen. Expectations are it will be evolutionary, however significant enough to give Mercedes fits. So, after testing we will see if we have a season or funeral. Drivers are not pretenders and they will make head-waves, tire permitting.

2. Mercedes - what one can say. I think they will defeat themselves, while Ferrari is watching.
- Too much of unpleasant, diversionary infighting between drivers and who knows where management stands.
- People who placed this team on pedestal IMO have all left, and Lowe has not impressed me as someone who will carry a ball next peg forward, all money thrown on him notwithstanding.

3. TR - I know, one can dream and it is going to be tight, however:
- Excellent, hungry drivers lineup, making up for some technical setbacks
- Whilst RBR lost Newey, TR has J. Key, and he seems to know what he is doing.
- TR has one of the best chassis in the field, IMHO.
- Reliability fallouts MUST be taken care off.
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Lawrence on Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:19 pm

Paolo, not a lot of love for the medium-sized privateers in your picks (Williams, Force India). In the end, I think they will get buried by the factory teams, but they may have another year to shine. The Renault budget for next year is rumored to be around 200-250. That is more a Williams-sized budget than a Mercedes-sized one.
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Paolo 2 on Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:23 pm

Lawrence wrote:Paolo, not a lot of love for the medium-sized privateers in your picks (Williams, Force India). In the end, I think they will get buried by the factory teams, but they may have another year to shine. The Renault budget for next year is rumored to be around 200-250. That is more a Williams-sized budget than a Mercedes-sized one.


In effect there are not many chances for privateers, IMHO at Williams they blew an excellent opportunity, they simply couldn't make the grade and IMHO it was down to the management (clare is nice but in fairness it looks as if she inherited the role rather than earned it) and the drivers: Bottas and Massa are there because their sponsors bought them a ride and you can't really expect much from rent-a-drivers. Regarding Force India I'm not sure that we should consider them a privateer any longer, with the AMR deal they probably move up the food chain.

But the underlying problem for small teams is that IMHO the big boys have realised that with the current formula either they outspend the others or they are just ending up looking like fools as Renault and Honda did this season, so in a sense even less chances for independent teams
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Lawrence on Mon Dec 07, 2015 4:10 pm

Paolo 2 wrote:IMHO at Williams they blew an excellent opportunity, they simply couldn't make the grade and IMHO it was down to the management (clare is nice but in fairness it looks as if she inherited the role rather than earned it) and the drivers: Bottas and Massa are there because their sponsors bought them a ride and you can't really expect much from rent-a-drivers.


I am afraid I have to agree with you, except they have one last year to change the narrative. If not, I think they will return back to the role of permanent backmarker. Frank Williams has really overcome a lot of hurdles in his life, and this is one more I would like to see him do....but I fear this is the last shot for the current Williams management.

Regarding Force India I'm not sure that we should consider them a privateer any longer, with the AMR deal they probably move up the food chain.


Red Bull is a privateer. Ferrari a few years back declared that they were also a privateer.

But the underlying problem for small teams is that IMHO the big boys have realised that with the current formula either they outspend the others or they are just ending up looking like fools as Renault and Honda did this season, so in a sense even less chances for independent teams


Well, it is not just the "current formula". Ferrari's five years of dominance and Red Bulls' four years of dominance were fueled by them having the largest budget.

Just to restate the opinion that annoys Sakae to no end, we really won't have a proper racing series until we bring in budget caps. Lets see how Mercedes and Ferrari would do against Williams if they all had only $200 million a year to spend.
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Re: 2016 Pre-season chat

Postby Paolo 2 on Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:05 pm

Lawrence wrote:
Paolo 2 wrote:IMHO at Williams they blew an excellent opportunity, they simply couldn't make the grade and IMHO it was down to the management (clare is nice but in fairness it looks as if she inherited the role rather than earned it) and the drivers: Bottas and Massa are there because their sponsors bought them a ride and you can't really expect much from rent-a-drivers.


I am afraid I have to agree with you, except they have one last year to change the narrative. If not, I think they will return back to the role of permanent backmarker. Frank Williams has really overcome a lot of hurdles in his life, and this is one more I would like to see him do....but I fear this is the last shot for the current Williams management.

Regarding Force India I'm not sure that we should consider them a privateer any longer, with the AMR deal they probably move up the food chain.


Red Bull is a privateer. Ferrari a few years back declared that they were also a privateer.



I hope for Williams that they can keep the ball rolling in 2016 but I fear that the others will be able to make a considerable leap forward while at Williams they won't have the $$$ to do the same. McLaren-Honda IMHO will do significantly better than in 2015, Honda has poured so much resources that in a sense they cannot fail, a similar situation at Renault, RBR is a threat and if the Aston Martin/Force India deal goes through they will be a sort of junior Mercedes team. It looks scary for Williams, especially when you consider the blunders that they have been making in pure management terms

Regarding Ferrari being a privateer, yeah right, if they are a privateer then I'm Santa :rotflmao:

Who are the true privateers? IMHO not Red Bull, they might not be part of a car group but they are an integral part of a very big business willing to spend big bucks in F1, Ferrari is not a privateer by definition, Renault, Mercedes and ARM (if it goes through) are the same, Haas is Ferrari's "b" team so hardly a privateer (maybe a semi-works team) and so I believe it's the case for Manor. Toro Rosso? again, far from being a privateer, they have a smaller budget that RBR but they don't have to worry about making ends meet. It leaves us with Williams, who is certainly the quintessentially independent "garagiste" and McLaren who are currently being backed by Honda but that is only a contractual agreement, the situation could easily change in the future.

In a sense I fear that privateers have been driven out of F1, on the one side F1 has become terribly expensive and hugely complex with the current set of engines, on the other hand the regulatory framework prevents me and you setting up a team, finding a few sponsors, buying some Dallara chassis and Mecachrome/cosworth/whatever engine, hire a couple of moneyed south american drivers and go racing, no one can do that, it's banned, sadly. they said that banning new blood from entering F1 was good for the future of the sport, I personally beg to disagree
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